Ukraine is nearly certain Russia will leave the Black Sea Grain Initiative as its renewal date approaches because Russia is developing an alternative for its ammonia exports, Reuters reported, citing a senior Ukrainian diplomat.
The United Nations and Turkey brokered the Black Sea deal in separate agreements with Russia and Ukraine in July 2022 to alleviate a global food crisis worsened by Russia’s Feb. 24, 2022, invasion of Ukraine.
The deal has allowed for the safe passage of ships carrying 32.2 million tonnes of grain and other agricultural products from three Ukrainian ports, according to the UN, and is credited with settling grain commodity markets. Ukraine has also been exporting grain via its small Danube River ports as well as through its western border with the European Union.
Russia has threatened not to extend the agreement beyond July 18 unless a series of demands, including the removal of obstacles to Russian grain and fertilizer exports, are met. The Black Sea export deal also allows for the safe export of Russian ammonia, which is used in nitrate fertilizer, but none has been shipped under the initiative.
Russia has been pushing for the resumption of ammonia shipments via a pipeline through Ukraine to the Black Sea port of Odesa, which has lain idle since last year and was damaged by an explosion earlier this month.
Olha Trofimtseva, Ukraine’s foreign ministry ambassador at large, said Russian ammonia producer Uralchem had found an alternative route and did not need to export ammonia via Odesa.
“The grain corridor. 99.9% that Russia will leave it in July,” Trofimtseva said on the Telegram messaging app on June 21, according to Reuters.
In May, Dmitry Konyaev, chief executive officer of Uralchem, said that a specialized ammonia terminal whose first construction stage is due to be completed on the Taman Peninsula in Russia by the end of this year could be a substitute for the Odesa pipeline.