Although Brazil’s latest soybean production forecast for the 2023-24 marketing year has been revised lower to 158.5 million tonnes, it still would top last year’s record total if realized, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.
The previous projection in October was for a crop of 161 million tonnes — 3 million tonnes higher than in 2022-23 — but the FAS said poor weather resulting from El Niño has lowered expectations for this year’s crop.
The FAS said that ” hot and dry weather conditions, low soil moisture levels, and below-average rainfalls during most of October and November have negatively impacted yield outlooks,” the FAS said.
In one of the country’s key soybean-producing regions, Rio Grande do Sul, the FAS said, “heavy rains over the last two months have delayed sowing pace, risking the most recent seeds planted to miss the ideal weather window for proper plant growth.”
Despite a projected reduction of 200,000 hectares in planted area from the October forecast, the FAS foresees a 3% increase over 2022-23 soybean acreage to 44 million hectares. Brazil is by far the world’s largest producer and exporter of soybeans, having surpassed the United States in those categories in recent years. In 2023-24, Brazil is forecast to double the United States’ export total (99 million tonnes, compared to 47 million), with most of the exports expected to go to the world’s biggest importer, China.