Canada’s grain output in the upcoming marketing year is forecast to increase by nearly 5%, boosted mainly by a surge in wheat production, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.
The FAS, which issued the Global Agricultural Information Network report on April 24, forecasts a 5.4% increase in Canadian total wheat production to 33.7 million tonnes in 2024-25, slightly higher than the five-year average. Overall grain production is seen increasing by 4.9% to 61.4 million tonnes compared to the drought-plagued 2023-24 harvest.
The most notable production increase among the various classes of wheat was in durum, where the FAS projects a 36% climb to 5.5 million tonnes on a 5% increase in planted area and a recovery in yields. Spring wheat output is expected to rise by 2% in 2024-25 to 25.2 million tonnes.
With production rebounding, Canadian wheat imports are seen declining by 50,000 tonnes from 600,000 tonnes in 2023-24, which was the second largest intake on record, the report said. Conversely, wheat exports are seen increasing by 5% to 24.7 million tonnes.
Total grain exports are forecast to increase by 3.3% year-over-year, as the wheat outgo offsets lower corn, oat and barley exports.
Notably, corn imports are expected to decline by 30% “on the assumption of improved moisture levels in the Prairie Provinces, increase domestic forage supplies, and improved grazing.”The FAS forecasts slight increases in corn and barley production at 15.4 million and 8.9 million tonnes, respectively.