The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Aug. 12 lowered its estimate for US all-wheat production this year based on forecasts for lower soft red winter, other spring and durum wheat production that more than offset increased hard red winter and white winter wheat forecasts. The Department lowered its forecast for 2024-25 global and US wheat ending stocks.
The USDA forecast 2024 all-wheat US production at 1.982 billion bushels, down 26 million bushels, or 1.2%, from July but up 9% from 2023. US winter wheat production was forecast at 1.361 billion bushels, up 20 million bushels, or 1.4%, from July and up 9% from 2023. Included were forecasts for a 2% increase from July in hard red winter wheat production to 776 million bushels, and a 4% increase in white winter wheat production to 243 million bushels.
The white winter wheat forecast comprised 19.3 million bushels hard white winter and 224 million bushels of soft white winter.
Those increases were more than offset by the USDA lowering from July its forecasts for soft red winter wheat less than 1% to 342 million bushels, dropping its other spring wheat forecast by 6% to 544 million bushels (up 8% from 2023) and reducing the durum wheat forecast by 14% to 76.9 million bushels (up 30% from 2023).
Of the total other spring wheat production, 499 million bushels, or 92%, was projected to be hard red spring wheat.
US winter wheat production was based on an Aug. 1 yield estimate at 53.2 bushels per acre, up 1.2 bushels from July and up 2.6 bushels from 50.6 bushels as the 2023 average yield. Winter wheat area expected to be harvested for grain or seed was estimated at 25.6 million acres, down 1% from the USDA’s June 28 Acreage report, but up 4% from 2023.
US other spring wheat production forecasts were based on Aug. 1 conditions and yields expected to average 52.6 bushels per harvested acre, down ½ a bushel per acre from July but up 6.6 bushels from 2023. If realized, the US other spring wheat average yield would be a record high. The area harvested for grain or seed was expected to total 10.3 million acres, down 5% from June’s Acreage report and down 6% from 2023.
The US all-wheat production forecast matched the low end of a range of pre-report expectations from analysts. The all-winter, hard red winter and soft red winter production forecasts were within the respective ranges. The white winter forecast topped expectations, while the other spring wheat and durum projections fell below analysts’ expectations.
The lower US wheat production forecasts, along with slightly higher domestic use and a steady export projection, was behind a decrease in the forecast for June 1, 2025, carryover. The USDA forecast the 2025 US wheat carryout at 828 million bushels, down 28 million bushels, or 3.3%, from July but up 18% from 702 million bushels this year. The USDA left unchanged from July its forecasts for wheat imports and exports this year at 105 million and 825 million bushels, respectively.
Food use of wheat was raised 2 million bushels, to 964 million bushels, up 3 million bushels, or 0.3%, from 2024. Carryover forecasts were raised 12 million bushels for hard red winter wheat, but lowered for other classes, including hard red spring, down 24 million bushels; white winter, down 2 million bushels; and durum, down 14 million bushels. The expected soft red winter wheat carryout as of June 1, 2025, was left unchanged at 136 million bushels.
The USDA lowered its global wheat ending stocks forecast by 620,000 tonnes from July. If realized, the global carryout would be down 5.74 million tonnes from 262.2 million tonnes in 2023-24. The lower ending stocks came despite increased production forecasts for Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Australia. Those were offset by the lower US production estimate, a decrease in the EU crop forecast and increased world consumption.
Wheat futures were mixed after the release of the reports with Chicago and Kansas City futures down between 5¢ and 9¢ per bushel and the five closest Minneapolis futures up 2¢ to 3¢ per bushel.