Recent rainfall has quickly changed the direction of winter wheat crop conditions in the US central and southern Plains. Growers hope additional rain in forecasts signals a pattern change to pull those regions out of drought, promote emergence before the hard red winter wheat crop goes dormant, and lessen the burden on spring precipitation to make the crop.
The US Department of Agriculture debuted its aggregate winter wheat conditions ratings in its Oct. 28 Crop Progress report. At 38% in good-to-excellent condition, the crop was worse than 47% a year earlier, worse than analysts expected, and the second lowest in records dating to 1986.
The crop’s first condition ratings “didn’t have any major surprises,” said Justin Gilpin, chief executive officer of Kansas Wheat. “I think everybody knew, considering the emergence number. It’s just so early, and the ground’s been so dry and hard. The wheat in the central part of the US hasn’t really had a chance to be established yet.”
The week ended Nov. 2, which brought cooler, wetter weather to the top hard red winter wheat-producing states of Kansas, Oklahoma, northern Texas, and that state’s Panhandle, eastern Colorado, and Nebraska. The moisture received proved beneficial, and the latest USDA ratings show improved conditions in six of the seven central hard red winter wheat production states. The Department said the portion of the crop rated good-to-excellent as of Nov. 3 was 40% in Kansas (38% a week earlier), 31% in Oklahoma (21%), 24% in Texas (30%), 58% in Colorado (51%), 37% in Nebraska (31%), 35% in South Dakota (44%) and 22% (all good) in Montana (17%).
While the additional moisture appears to have the crop on track for better conditions heading into dormancy, other evidence in the Crop Progress report reminded the trade that much more precipitation was needed. Topsoil moisture supplies are crucial in the early stages of winter wheat to promote emergence before dormancy.
No central winter wheat production state had surplus topsoil moisture as of Nov. 3. Topsoil moisture rated short to very short on that date was 55% in Kansas (78% a week earlier), 68% in Oklahoma (84%), 78% in Texas (92%), 65% in Colorado (63%), 79% in Nebraska (84%), 81% in South Dakota (82%) and 73% in Montana (64%).
The central and southern Plains “needed a pattern change, needed to get a rain, let it soak in, and then forecasts show a chance for another soaking rain,” Gilpin said. “The most important time for wheat obviously is springtime, but to give wheat a fighting chance, you want to get it up and established going into winter. We would have liked to have these rains a couple of weeks ago, but we won’t complain about getting them now. Hopefully, it’s not too late to have the plant still growing, getting some tillers, and getting established going into winter.”
The last couple of Crop Progress releases before the USDA shelves the weekly report until spring could indicate whether the rains spur a jolt of development and growth. Winter wheat emergence by Nov. 3 was 76% in Kansas, 47% in Oklahoma, 52% in Texas, 86% in Colorado, 83% in Nebraska, 70% in South Dakota, and 80% in Montana.
“Things are cooling off pretty fast in Kansas, and the growing season’s coming to a close,” Gilpin said. “I’m not going to complain about moisture, but will this moisture do a lot to cause that development? The plant’s just not growing as fast as we received the rains two weeks ago. I don’t want to sound too pessimistic because we’re getting this moisture perfectly.”
Recent rains also have improved conditions in the Central states where soft red winter wheat is primarily grown. The USDA rated winter wheat in good-to-excellent condition as of Nov. 3 at 61% in Missouri (55% a week earlier), 68% in Illinois (51%), 63% in Indiana (67%), 68% in Ohio (71%) and 64% in Michigan (61%).