A push by “green” energy proponents for a more environmentally friendly airline fuel has led to the development of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), produced by vegetable oils, ethanol, plant biomass, and waste products. This includes soy-based biodiesel and corn-based ethanol. SAF is blended with conventional fuel at different levels, with limits between 10% to 50% depending on the feedstock and how the fuel is produced. According to the International Civil Aviation Organization, more than 360,000 commercial flights have used SAF at 46 airports, mainly in the United States and Europe.
Global production of SAF is expected to reach over 600 million gallons in 2024, but that is a tiny fraction of the roughly 100 billion gallons of airline fuel projected to be used globally this year, according to a Global Outlook for Air Transportation report. However, proponents of SAF envision exponential growth in the coming years. Three years ago, the Biden administration set production goals of 3 billion gallons of SAF by 2030 in the United States and 35 billion by 2050, a figure that would satisfy 100% of domestic airline fuel demand.
If these goals are realized, it will be a game-changer for corn and soybean producers and the biofuels industry. They received promising news in April when the US Department of Energy updated its model to calculate lifecycle emissions for SAF. Called GREET (greenhouse gases, regulated emissions and energy use in technologies), the model incorporated new data, including updated modelling of key feedstocks and processes used in aviation fuel and indirect emissions and integrated key greenhouse gas emission reduction strategies.
The final draft of GREET is expected soon. Also pending is guidance on the Inflation Reduction Act’s 45Z tax credit, which goes into effect Jan. 1, 2025, and will help farmers and the industries that serve them find new revenue opportunities with the expansion of the SAF market. But as CoBank noted in a recent report, the tax credit alone won’t be enough. Additional long-term government and market incentives will be needed to ramp up SAF output to optimal levels.
Other questions must be addressed: Will the cost of SAF, which is currently about three times higher than petroleum-based fuel, become more affordable? Can enough additional arable land be developed to produce the feedstock needed for SAF? Will cropland expansion incentivized by SAF undermine the potential greenhouse gas emissions reductions from those fuels since studies indicate that converting land to crops releases carbon from the soil while reducing its biomass? And with Donald Trump returning to power, how supportive will his administration be of SAF?
It also raises the question often asked on this editorial page by Morton Sosland, the late editor-in-chief of World Grain, amid the initial biofuels boom: If more grain is diverted for industrial purposes, how will that impact the global food supply and the price of food?
SAF is moving down the proverbial airport runway, but several hurdles must be crossed before it’s cleared for takeoff.