Reuters reported, citing the Russian government, that Russia, the world’s leading exporter, plans to cut its wheat export quota by two-thirds in 2025. It will also hike wheat export duties by over 18% beginning Dec. 4, 2024, and eliminate import quotas for some staple foods.
The Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) Council said Russia’s export quotas for the second part of the export season from Feb. 15 to June 30, 2025, will be 11 million tonnes, a steep reduction from the 29 million tonnes shipped during 2024. The EEU comprises Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia and coordinates the customs and tariff policy of its members.
The large reduction in exports could significantly impact countries such as Egypt, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, which have depended on Russia for most of their wheat imports. It could also have a bullish impact on global wheat prices.
Reuters reported that the Russian government’s decision was influenced by a smaller-than-expected wheat crop in 2024 related to unfavourable weather conditions in Russia’s key production regions and soaring exports in recent months.
“The decision will help smooth out fluctuations in consumer prices caused by the depletion of domestic production stocks and the need to supply the domestic market through imports, and will contribute to curbing inflation,” Russia’s economic industry said.
For the 2024-25 season, Russia is expected to produce 81 million tonnes of wheat while exporting 48 million tonnes, the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture said in its latest forecast. If realized, both would be the country’s lowest totals since the 2021-22 season.