Production of Canada’s principal field crops is expected to decrease in 2025-26, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) said in its preliminary outlook for 2025-26 Canadian supply and demand. Forecasted increases in Canadian wheat, barley and oats were more than offset by decreases in corn, canola, soybeans and other crops.
The outlook was contained in the January Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops. AAFC projected Canadian all-wheat production in 2025 at 35.025 million tonnes, up 67,000 tonnes, or 0.2%, from 34.958 million tonnes in 2024. The increase was primarily attributed to larger areas seeded to wheat and harvested, which offset a decline in forecasted all-wheat yield. The harvested area for all-wheat was projected at 10.806 million hectares, up 158,000 hectares from 10.648 million hectares in 2024. The average all-wheat yield in 2025 was forecast at 3.24 tonnes per hectare, compared with 3.28 tonnes per hectare in 2024 and 3.08 tonnes per hectare in 2023.
“For 2025-26, the area seeded to wheat in Canada is forecast to increase by 4% to 8.6 million hectares, with a 15% increase in area seeded to winter wheat and a 3% increase in the area seeded to spring wheat,” AAFC said.
Production of wheat except durum was projected at 29.873 million tonnes, up 785,000 tonnes, or 2.7%, from 29.088 million tonnes in 2024. Area planted to wheat except durum was projected at 8.576 million hectares, up 317,000 hectares, or 3.8%, from 8.259 million hectares in 2024, and harvested area in 2025 was forecast at 8.386 million hectares, up 303,000 hectares from 8.083 million hectares in 2024. The average 2025 yield for wheat except durum was forecast at 3.56 tonnes per hectare compared with 3.6 tonnes per hectare in 2024.
The forecast for Canadian durum in 2025-26 was for smaller seeded and harvested areas, lower yield and lower production. AAFC projected durum production in 2025 at 5.152 million tonnes, down 718,000 tonnes, or 12%, from 5.870 million tonnes in 2024. The durum planted area was forecast at 2.452 million hectares, down 124,000 hectares, or 5% from 2.576 million hectares in 2024. Harvested area was projected at 2.420 million hectares, down 145,000 hectares from 2024. The average durum yield was projected at 2.13 tonnes per hectare, down from 2.29 tonnes per hectare in 2024.
AAFC said 2025 oat plantings were projected to be up from 2024 because of the projection of a tight supply and demand balance for the previous year and a relatively slower decline in prices. AAFC’s 2025-26 oats projections were for 1.250 million hectares seeded (up 6.5% from 2024); 1.040 million hectares harvested (up 5%); average yield at 3.38 tonnes per hectare (unchanged) and production of 3.510 million tonnes (up 4.5%).
AAFC projected 2025 Canadian canola production at 17.5 million tonnes, down 2% from 17.845 million tonnes in 2024.
Canola plantings this spring were forecast at 8.5 million hectares, down 408,000 hectares, or 4.6%, from 8.908 million hectares in 2024. The AAFC said seeding was down under pressure from declining prices, steady input costs, low late-fall soil moisture and an expected slight strengthening of wheat prices.
Harvested area of canola was projected at 8.421 million hectares, down 425,000 hectares, or 5%, from 8.846 million hectares in 2024. Average yield was projected at 2.08 tonnes per hectare compared with 2.02 tonnes per hectare in 2024.