Greater planted area and a recovery in productivity have Brazil poised to harvest 325.7 million tonnes of grains for the 2024-25 season, according to the National Supply Company’s (Conab’s) recently released forecast. The current estimates would be 9.4% greater than the previous season.
The latest producer survey reflects a 2.1% increase in the cultivated area, estimated at 81.6 million hectares, and a 7.1% recovery in average crop productivity, forecast at 3,990 kilos per hectare, Conab said in its fifth harvest report on Feb. 13. The forecast is 3.4 million tonnes more than the January report, and if realized, Conab said this will be the largest grains volume to be harvested in the history of its survey series.
Conab pointed to an increase in total corn production, expected to reach 122 million tonnes and an increase of 5.5% over 2023-24. The harvest of the first crop of corn has already reached 13.3% of the planted area. This season, there was a 6.6% reduction in the area planted for first corn, but this was offset by the 9.9% gain in average productivity compared to 2023-24. As a result, 23.6 million tonnes of corn are projected to be harvested in the first cycle.
The second corn crop already is 18.8% sown. Weather conditions are favourable, Conab noted, and with planted area projected to be 2.4% higher, production is estimated to reach 96 million tonnes, up 6.4%.
The improved outlook for the second crop of corn led Conab to update its domestic demand forecast to 86.9 million tonnes. Exports are estimated to drop slightly to 34 million tonnes for 2024-25 on a lower surplus for international markets due to the steadily growing domestic demand.
The planting of second-season corn follows a speedy soybean harvest. With 14.8% of the area already harvested, the expectation is that soybean production will reach 166 million tonnes, 18.3 million tonnes above the previous harvest.
“The result reflects the increase in the area allocated to the crop combined with the recovery of average productivity in the country’s crops,” Conab said. “The weather conditions were favourable, especially in Paraná, Santa Catarina and most states in the central-west. The exceptions are Mato Grosso do Sul and Rio Grande do Sul, which registered water restrictions from mid-December.”
Conab estimates rice production will reach 11.8 million tonnes, growing 11.4% compared to 2023-24. The improved harvest in the current season guarantees domestic supply and allows for Brazilian rice exports to increase to 2 million tonnes, Conab said.
With sowing nearly complete, the rice area should reach 1.7 million hectares, 6.4% more than the area cultivated in the previous harvest, Conab noted. In Rio Grande do Sul, the country’s largest producer, high temperatures and reduced water levels in reservoirs in some state regions are causing concern. However, they do not indicate a reduction in average productivity.