Brazil, the world’s largest producer and exporter of soybeans, is forecast to set records in those categories in the 2025-26 marketing year, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.
The report said Brazil accounts for 40% of global soybean production. Its output is projected to increase by 2% year on year to 173 million tonnes, as plantings and yield are expected to increase slightly.
The FAS forecasts soybean exports to rise by 3% to 112 million tonnes in 2025-26, more than double the next largest exporter, the United States.
The agency said global soybean demand will continue to rise, with China being “the primary driver of global demand, accounting for the most soybean imports worldwide.”
Although China is attempting to become more self-sufficient in grains and oilseeds, the FAS doesn’t see the world’s second most populous country reducing its intake from Brazil, particularly with trade tensions increasing with the United States.
“China is unlikely to significantly pull back on purchases of Brazilian soybeans due to established relationships and the inherently less politically charged relationship between Brasilia and Beijing,” the FAS noted.
The report said the European Union is also a significant export market, accounting for approximately 14% of Brazil’s soybean and derivative exports.
The report said another factor making Brazilian soybean exports attractive is the country’s currency exchange rate, which remains relatively low due to economic stagnation.
With global soybean demand soaring, Brazil’s soybean planted area grew by 20% over the last four years. The FAS predicts that acreage will continue to expand as the Brazilian government focuses on converting degraded pastureland to crop production.
Brazil’s National Supply Company (CONAB) recently estimated that by 2032-33, Brazil’s soybean area should reach nearly 56 million hectares, with production rising to 186.7 million tonnes.