With a bumper corn crop expected, the International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts global grains production in the 2025-26 marketing year at a record 2.373 billion tonnes.
In its April Grain Market Report, the IGC revised its corn output projection to a record 1.274 billion tonnes, while forecasts for wheat and rice remained roughly the same from the previous month.
If realized, corn output would be 5% higher than in 2024-25 and total grains (wheat, rice and coarse grains) production would increase by 3% year on year.
The IGC said that with supply gains broadly matched by consumption, total grains inventories are unchanged year on year.
“Coarse grains stocks are forecast to build slightly, while wheat carryovers could recede for the third consecutive year,” the IGC said.
The Council noted that at 424 million tonnes, “trade is expected to rise, but with volumes seen smaller than average amid muted Chinese buying interest.”
The IGC said that despite record supplies, world soybean consumption and inventories are seen at respective peaks in 2024-25, with trade also set to edge up to 181 million tonnes.
Concerning prospects for 2025-26, global soybean output is projected at a record (428 million tonnes), with bigger crops in South America expected to drive the increase.
“Consumption is projected to advance further on gains in feed, food and industrial demand, with stocks remaining at elevated levels,” the IGC noted. “World import demand is likely to hold steady as bigger deliveries to smaller markets offset reduced shipments to China.”
Little change is anticipated for rice, as the IGC forecasts a 3-million-tonne increase in production year on year to 540 million tonnes. Slight increases are also predicted in trade, consumption, and carryover stocks.
The IGC’s Grain and Oilseed Price Index rose by 1% from the March report as advances in row crop export prices more than compensated for a pullback in rice, wheat and barley.
The IGC said the Index is 2% lower year-to-year, thanks mainly to a 29% drop in rice prices.