Argentina is preparing for a bumper wheat crop, matching the record set in 2021-22, but prices are lagging and the government is trying to stabilize the nation’s economy, which is in a currency crisis, with help from the United States.
Wheat production in 2025-26 is estimated at 23 million tonnes, thanks to unprecedented rainfall that provided good soil moisture, according to the Rosario grains exchange. The harvest price has continued to decline since July, it said, and as of Oct. 15, price hedging was at 15% of the expected harvest, half the average proportion for this time of year.
“The combination of a substantial increase in exportable supply and a shift in the purchasing market by one of the world’s largest importers, China, largely explains the current market trend,” the exchange said in an Oct. 17 report. “Added to this are the even lower prices for corn, which competes in part with wheat for feed.”
The United States signed a $20 billion economic stabilization agreement with Argentina on Oct. 21 to help the nation’s economy. A run on the peso in September, following concerns over support for the government’s free market reforms, caused the government to use a significant amount of its already scarce hard currency reserves.
Few details of the agreement with the United States have been given, but news reports said the United States will tap its Exchange Stabilization Fund to trade dollars for pesos, providing dollar liquidity to Argentina. The United States is also looking to provide an additional $20 billion through a mix of financing from sovereign funds and private banks.
US President Donald Trump’s administration also had plans to quadruple the tariff rate quota on Argentine beef to 80,000 tonnes, to reduce prices for US consumers.
Argentina is the world’s third largest food exporter, playing an important role in feeding populations around the world, and has large-scale agricultural and livestock industries. The nation is rich in natural resources, including more than 39 million hectares of land cultivated for ranching and farming, gas and lithium reserves.
The nation has 334,000 farms, according to the World Bank, of which three-quarters are family-owned. These farms provide about half of the food consumed locally and contribute to the nation’s exports. About half of the family farms do not have enough land or capital to make a living from production, and they are more susceptible to climate change risks, the World Bank said.
Grain production
With good soil moisture, an estimated 6.7 million hectares of wheat was planted, according to the exchange. Industry leaders told the exchange: “We’ve never seen wheat like this.” The nation saw unprecedented rainfall in July and August, with several records set in August. For example, rainfall in Gancedo, Chaco, exceeded 115 years of monthly historical records.
The production increase is almost entirely due to a growth in the harvest in the central region, which includes northern Buenos Aires, Entre Ríos, Santa Fe, Córdoba, southern Santiago del Estero, and San Luis. This region is expected to see a 22% increase over the previous year, reaching a production of 15.2 million tonnes, or 2.7 million tonnes more than the previous season, the exchange said. Thus, the central region would account for 66% of national production.
The national average yield is estimated at 131 bushels per hectare.
Most of the wheat will be used for flour production, both domestically and for export, according to the Rosario exchange. Flour production is expected to reach 6.7 million tonnes (wheat equivalent) in the 2025-26 campaign, it said.
The nation has nearly 160 flour mills with a capacity almost double current production levels, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.
“The consumption of wheat flour is quite stable, growing every year slightly higher than the slow population growth rate,” the FAS said. “Some changes in food nutrition and habits are pushing wheat consumption slightly higher. Argentine cuisine and the typical daily diet are full of wheat-heavy items, including bread, croissants, pizzas and empanadas. Consumption of ready-to-eat foods continue to grow at a faster pace than other foods, which has been increasing overall wheat flour consumption.”
The central region of the country has the highest concentration of flour mills and the largest urban centers, giving it the highest estimate for milling at 5 million tonnes (wheat equivalent), or 75% of the total flour. The northern region will account for 400,000 tonnes while the southern region is expected to mill 1.3 million tonnes.
The Rosario exchange estimates wheat exports at 15 million tonnes, which would make it the second-largest volume. Most of the exports — about 10.2 million tonnes — are expected from the central region followed by the southern region at 4.3 million tonnes.
Brazil is a top destination and is expected to import 5 million tonnes of wheat and small volumes of flour, according to the FAS. Indonesia typically imports 1 million to 2 million tonnes of wheat, while the rest goes to markets in South America, southeast Asia and Africa.
Corn (maize) production for 2025-26 is estimated at 54 million tonnes, the fourth highest volume ever and 12.5% higher than the previous season, according to the FAS. Farmers’ returns are projected to be better for corn than soybeans, the FAS said.
Planted area is up 10% from last season, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), when concerns over the stunt disease, transmitted by leafhoppers, discouraged farmers from planting.
“Weather forecasts currently indicate for next summer neutral weather or El Niño, which in Argentina it normally brings more rains than normal, benefiting corn production,” the FAS said.
Corn export estimates for 2025-26 range from 33.5 million tonnes (FAO) to 37 million tonnes (FAS). The FAO said that despite a reduction of export duties and the depreciation of the local currency, a decline in exports is expected due to the tight exportable surplus from the below-average 2025 crop. Key destinations include Indonesia, Morocco and Egypt, the FAS said.
Oilseed situation
With the shift back to corn production, the FAS is estimating the total soybean planted area for 2025-26 will decrease by 1 million hectares. However, production is estimated at 49.5 million tonnes, a slight increase from the 49 million tonnes produced in the 2024-25 season.
Production costs continue to rise and margins, especially on rented land, are expected to be razor-thin or even negative in 2025-26, the FAS said.
Crush is expected to increase by 500,000 tonnes, to 43 million tonnes, the FAS said, supported by favourable crush margins, modest gains in domestic production and robust carryover stocks.
“Argentina remains the world’s leading exporter of soybean meal and oil, supported by a highly developed crushing industry concentrated along the Paraná River system, particularly in the province of Santa Fe,” the FAS said.
Argentina has 344 crushing facilities, with a capacity of 67 million tonnes.
Soybean exports are expected to rise by 17% in 2025-26, reaching between 5 million to 6 million tonnes. Nearly 90% of Argentina’s whole bean exports are destined for China.