Grain market review: Oilseeds
The popularity of soybeans with US producers, as they plant for 2024-25, has put pressure on prices, particularly following an upward revision to the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) planted area forecast. Big Brazilian and Argentine production at the same time as softening Chinese demand also contributed to the forecast. In a paper, “Grains and Oilseeds Outlook for 2024,” published Feb. 15 at the Agricultural Outlook Forum 2024, the USDA said: “Soybean area is expected to increase as demand for…
Study details Ukraine war’s wheat market impact.
As the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine draws near, a recently published research paper on the long-term impact the war has had on global wheat prices and market responses paints a relatively optimistic picture. The study, which was co-authored by researchers from the University of Illinois and Texas Tech University, found that although prices initially spiked in the first several months after the invasion, they have sharply declined since then as other wheat-producing countries have compensated for the…
Argentina’s wheat production improves
Wheat production in Argentina for 2023-24 is higher than originally expected as yields improved, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.
Drought lowers Canada’s 2023-24 wheat production.
Despite a larger planted area, Canada’s wheat production in 2023-24 dropped 7% from the previous year to 31.95 million tonnes, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Severely low soil moisture in Alberta and Saskatchewan reduced yields, the FAS said.
High prices reducing India’s corn exports
Corn exports from India have plummeted recently as domestic prices have surged due to strong demand from the country’s poultry and ethanol industries, Reuters reported, citing several exporters. The sources told Reuters that traditional importers of Indian corn, such as Vietnam, Nepal and Malaysia, have shifted their purchases to South American countries that are offering it at a lower price. They said Indian corn costs about $300 per tonne, compared to $230 per tonne in South American countries.
Black Sea nations ally to clear mines
Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria have signed a memorandum of understanding to find and clear drifting sea mines in the Black Sea to facilitate safe transport of Ukrainian grain exports, Bloomberg reported. Mines drifting into specific areas of the Black Sea as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will be the focus of the initiative led by Turkey. Russia and Ukraine are both major producers and exporters of grain, and the war increasingly has threatened the safe passage of shipments.
Brazil’s soybean production revised to lower.
Although Brazil’s latest soybean production forecast for the 2023-24 marketing year has been revised lower to 158.5 million tonnes, it still would top last year’s record total, if realized, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture. The previous projection in October was for a crop of 161 million tonnes — 3 million tonnes higher than in 2022-23 — but the FAS said poor weather resulting from El Niño has lowered expectations…
Brazil to expand share of global soybean trade
Brazil’s share of global soybean trade could increase to 60.6% by 2033, according to a study released last week by the US Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service (ERS).
Geopolitics’ impact on global grain market
When Russia signed an agreement in October to supply China with 70 million tonnes of grain, legumes and oilseeds over the next 12 years, a comment made several years ago by Stefan Vogel, Rabobank’s global sector strategist for grains and oilseeds, came to mind. Vogel, in a conversation with World Grain in the fall of 2021, said given the growing political tension between longtime agricultural trade partners China and the United States, it was possible that Russia, which is more…
EU 2023-24 grain output revised lower
Extreme weather conditions across the European Union (EU) has reduced grain production projections for marketing year 2023-24, although output is still anticipated to exceed 2022-23 levels, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture. Production for the 27 Member States of the EU has been revised 1.1 million tonnes lower from the FAS’ previous forecast at 269 million tonnes. However, that still would be an increase over the estimated crop of 267.6…