Shifting population and income levels shape global ag demand
Changes in population and income levels will shift food demand and placement of corporate assets, Michael Zerr, long-term model lead, Cargill, Minneapolis, Minnesota, US, told attendees at the opening session of the International Sweetener Colloquium on Feb. 26. When you think 10 years out, it’s not so much about prices as “how does Cargill place assets across the supply chain,” Zerr said. Long-term drivers are population growth and gross domestic product.
Grain market review: Oilseeds
The popularity of soybeans with US producers, as they plant for 2024-25, has put pressure on prices, particularly following an upward revision to the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) planted area forecast. Big Brazilian and Argentine production at the same time as softening Chinese demand also contributed to the forecast. In a paper, “Grains and Oilseeds Outlook for 2024,” published Feb. 15 at the Agricultural Outlook Forum 2024, the USDA said: “Soybean area is expected to increase as demand for…
Argentina’s wheat production improves
Wheat production in Argentina for 2023-24 is higher than originally expected as yields improved, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.
High prices reducing India’s corn exports
Corn exports from India have plummeted recently as domestic prices have surged due to strong demand from the country’s poultry and ethanol industries, Reuters reported, citing several exporters. The sources told Reuters that traditional importers of Indian corn, such as Vietnam, Nepal and Malaysia, have shifted their purchases to South American countries that are offering it at a lower price. They said Indian corn costs about $300 per tonne, compared to $230 per tonne in South American countries.
Brazil’s soybean production revised to lower.
Although Brazil’s latest soybean production forecast for the 2023-24 marketing year has been revised lower to 158.5 million tonnes, it still would top last year’s record total, if realized, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture. The previous projection in October was for a crop of 161 million tonnes — 3 million tonnes higher than in 2022-23 — but the FAS said poor weather resulting from El Niño has lowered expectations…
EU 2023-24 grain output revised lower
Extreme weather conditions across the European Union (EU) has reduced grain production projections for marketing year 2023-24, although output is still anticipated to exceed 2022-23 levels, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture. Production for the 27 Member States of the EU has been revised 1.1 million tonnes lower from the FAS’ previous forecast at 269 million tonnes. However, that still would be an increase over the estimated crop of 267.6…
Ukraine grain exports down sharply from last year
Ukraine’s grain exports are continuing to fall significantly behind the pace a year ago, with 13.4 million tonnes exported so far, compared to 18.3 million tonnes last year, according to data from the agriculture ministry. The exports include 5.9 million tonnes of wheat, 6.5 million tonnes of corn and 876,000 tonnes of barley. By this time last year, Ukraine had exported 6.9 million tonnes of wheat, 9.8 million tonnes of corn and 1.48 million tonnes of barley.
Russia forecasting record grain exports
With nearly 98% of its harvest collected, Russia is forecasting over 65 million tonnes of grain exports during the 2023-24 marketing season, Reuters reported, citing Russian news agency Interfax. Russian Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev said on Nov. 28 that more than 151 million tonnes of grain in bunker weight had been threshed, including almost 99 million tonnes of wheat, according to Interfax.
Argentine wheat crop revised lower.
Due to widespread dry conditions, Argentina’s wheat production forecast for the 2023-24 marketing year has been revised lower in the most recent Global Agricultural Information Network report from the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). The FAS dropped its projections for Argentine wheat output by 2 million tonnes from the previous forecast to 14.5 million tonnes. If realized, the total would still be 2 million tonnes higher than the country’s 2022-23 drought-stricken crop. Argentina, typically the largest wheat…
Russia signs grain export deal with China.
A Russian export company has signed a deal to export 70 million tonnes of grain, legumes and oilseeds to China, Reuters reported on Oct. 18. The company, EPT, said the contract was for 12 years with a possible extension, according to Reuters.