Geopolitics’ impact on global grain market
When Russia signed an agreement in October to supply China with 70 million tonnes of grain, legumes and oilseeds over the next 12 years, a comment made several years ago by Stefan Vogel, Rabobank’s global sector strategist for grains and oilseeds, came to mind. Vogel, in a conversation with World Grain in the fall of 2021, said given the growing political tension between longtime agricultural trade partners China and the United States, it was possible that Russia, which is more…
FAO: Global cereal prices decline in November
Due mainly to declines in international corn and wheat prices, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) Cereal Price Index for November decreased by 3% from the previous month, according to a report released on Dec. 8. International prices of coarse grains dropped by 5.6% in November, led by a sharp fall in corn prices, while wheat prices declined by 2.4%, the FAO said. Its All-Rice Price Index remained stable month-on-month amidst contrasting price movements across different origins and…
Ukraine grain exports down sharply from last year
Ukraine’s grain exports are continuing to fall significantly behind the pace a year ago, with 13.4 million tonnes exported so far, compared to 18.3 million tonnes last year, according to data from the agriculture ministry. The exports include 5.9 million tonnes of wheat, 6.5 million tonnes of corn and 876,000 tonnes of barley. By this time last year, Ukraine had exported 6.9 million tonnes of wheat, 9.8 million tonnes of corn and 1.48 million tonnes of barley.
Russia forecasting record grain exports
With nearly 98% of its harvest collected, Russia is forecasting over 65 million tonnes of grain exports during the 2023-24 marketing season, Reuters reported, citing Russian news agency Interfax. Russian Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev said on Nov. 28 that more than 151 million tonnes of grain in bunker weight had been threshed, including almost 99 million tonnes of wheat, according to Interfax.
China’s grain feed use on upswing
China’s grain feed and residual use in marketing year 2023-24 is projected to rise slightly to 285 million tonnes, up 2.7% from 282.3 million tonnes in 2022-23, according to a Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture. FAS Post Beijing anticipates corn production in 2023-24 to edge higher to 280 million tonnes due to a larger planted area at 40.927 million hectares (up 1.9%) and improved yields. Feed and…
IGC: World soybean output up 7% year on year
IGC: World soybean output up 7% year on year. The International Grains Council (IGC) in its latest Grain Market Report revised global soybean production higher in marketing year 2023-24 to a record 395 million tonnes. The increase in output is chiefly linked to bigger crops in South America, the IGC said
USDA lowers corn, wheat area forecast
WASHINGTON, DC, US — The US Department of Agriculture on Nov. 7 projected area planted to soybeans to expand in 2024, but wheat and corn planting areas were forecast to decline. The forecasts were contained in early-release tables from the USDA Agricultural Projections to 2033 report, which will be issued in February 2024. The USDA forecast area planted to all wheat for harvest in 2024 at 48 million acres, down 1.2 million acres from 49.6 million acres in 2023. The…
FAO forecasts record cereal output
Global cereal production this year is forecast to reach a record 2.81 billion tonnes, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations’ latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief released on Nov. 3. Of note was higher projected coarse grain production in China and most of West Africa and lower forecasts for the United States and the European Union. Wheat output forecasts were raised for Iraq and the United States and revised downward for the European Union and…
Argentine wheat crop revised lower.
Due to widespread dry conditions, Argentina’s wheat production forecast for the 2023-24 marketing year has been revised lower in the most recent Global Agricultural Information Network report from the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). The FAS dropped its projections for Argentine wheat output by 2 million tonnes from the previous forecast to 14.5 million tonnes. If realized, the total would still be 2 million tonnes higher than the country’s 2022-23 drought-stricken crop. Argentina, typically the largest wheat…
Rabobank: US could still see top corn crop
While the US will not set yield records in corn this season, far better results than initially anticipated could still make it a top-two or top-three crop, according to Rabobank’s North American Agribusiness Review. In October, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered yield estimates against the backdrop of media reports indicating that crops coming off the field were better than expected. Rabobank said much about the 2022-23 crop year has been atypical.