Shifting population and income levels shape global ag demand
Changes in population and income levels will shift food demand and placement of corporate assets, Michael Zerr, long-term model lead, Cargill, Minneapolis, Minnesota, US, told attendees at the opening session of the International Sweetener Colloquium on Feb. 26. When you think 10 years out, it’s not so much about prices as “how does Cargill place assets across the supply chain,” Zerr said. Long-term drivers are population growth and gross domestic product.
Grain market review: Oilseeds
The popularity of soybeans with US producers, as they plant for 2024-25, has put pressure on prices, particularly following an upward revision to the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) planted area forecast. Big Brazilian and Argentine production at the same time as softening Chinese demand also contributed to the forecast. In a paper, “Grains and Oilseeds Outlook for 2024,” published Feb. 15 at the Agricultural Outlook Forum 2024, the USDA said: “Soybean area is expected to increase as demand for…
Drought lowers Canada’s 2023-24 wheat production.
Despite a larger planted area, Canada’s wheat production in 2023-24 dropped 7% from the previous year to 31.95 million tonnes, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Severely low soil moisture in Alberta and Saskatchewan reduced yields, the FAS said.
Brazil’s soybean production revised to lower.
Although Brazil’s latest soybean production forecast for the 2023-24 marketing year has been revised lower to 158.5 million tonnes, it still would top last year’s record total, if realized, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture. The previous projection in October was for a crop of 161 million tonnes — 3 million tonnes higher than in 2022-23 — but the FAS said poor weather resulting from El Niño has lowered expectations…
Brazil to expand share of global soybean trade
Brazil’s share of global soybean trade could increase to 60.6% by 2033, according to a study released last week by the US Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service (ERS).
Geopolitics’ impact on global grain market
When Russia signed an agreement in October to supply China with 70 million tonnes of grain, legumes and oilseeds over the next 12 years, a comment made several years ago by Stefan Vogel, Rabobank’s global sector strategist for grains and oilseeds, came to mind. Vogel, in a conversation with World Grain in the fall of 2021, said given the growing political tension between longtime agricultural trade partners China and the United States, it was possible that Russia, which is more…
EU 2023-24 grain output revised lower
Extreme weather conditions across the European Union (EU) has reduced grain production projections for marketing year 2023-24, although output is still anticipated to exceed 2022-23 levels, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture. Production for the 27 Member States of the EU has been revised 1.1 million tonnes lower from the FAS’ previous forecast at 269 million tonnes. However, that still would be an increase over the estimated crop of 267.6…
FAO: Global cereal prices decline in November
Due mainly to declines in international corn and wheat prices, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) Cereal Price Index for November decreased by 3% from the previous month, according to a report released on Dec. 8. International prices of coarse grains dropped by 5.6% in November, led by a sharp fall in corn prices, while wheat prices declined by 2.4%, the FAO said. Its All-Rice Price Index remained stable month-on-month amidst contrasting price movements across different origins and…
Russia forecasting record grain exports
With nearly 98% of its harvest collected, Russia is forecasting over 65 million tonnes of grain exports during the 2023-24 marketing season, Reuters reported, citing Russian news agency Interfax. Russian Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev said on Nov. 28 that more than 151 million tonnes of grain in bunker weight had been threshed, including almost 99 million tonnes of wheat, according to Interfax.
China’s grain feed use on upswing
China’s grain feed and residual use in marketing year 2023-24 is projected to rise slightly to 285 million tonnes, up 2.7% from 282.3 million tonnes in 2022-23, according to a Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture. FAS Post Beijing anticipates corn production in 2023-24 to edge higher to 280 million tonnes due to a larger planted area at 40.927 million hectares (up 1.9%) and improved yields. Feed and…