Shifting population and income levels shape global ag demand
Changes in population and income levels will shift food demand and placement of corporate assets, Michael Zerr, long-term model lead, Cargill, Minneapolis, Minnesota, US, told attendees at the opening session of the International Sweetener Colloquium on Feb. 26. When you think 10 years out, it’s not so much about prices as “how does Cargill place assets across the supply chain,” Zerr said. Long-term drivers are population growth and gross domestic product.
Grain market review: Oilseeds
The popularity of soybeans with US producers, as they plant for 2024-25, has put pressure on prices, particularly following an upward revision to the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) planted area forecast. Big Brazilian and Argentine production at the same time as softening Chinese demand also contributed to the forecast. In a paper, “Grains and Oilseeds Outlook for 2024,” published Feb. 15 at the Agricultural Outlook Forum 2024, the USDA said: “Soybean area is expected to increase as demand for…
Study details Ukraine war’s wheat market impact.
As the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine draws near, a recently published research paper on the long-term impact the war has had on global wheat prices and market responses paints a relatively optimistic picture. The study, which was co-authored by researchers from the University of Illinois and Texas Tech University, found that although prices initially spiked in the first several months after the invasion, they have sharply declined since then as other wheat-producing countries have compensated for the…
High prices reducing India’s corn exports
Corn exports from India have plummeted recently as domestic prices have surged due to strong demand from the country’s poultry and ethanol industries, Reuters reported, citing several exporters. The sources told Reuters that traditional importers of Indian corn, such as Vietnam, Nepal and Malaysia, have shifted their purchases to South American countries that are offering it at a lower price. They said Indian corn costs about $300 per tonne, compared to $230 per tonne in South American countries.
Brazil to expand share of global soybean trade
Brazil’s share of global soybean trade could increase to 60.6% by 2033, according to a study released last week by the US Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service (ERS).
FAO: Global cereal prices decline in November
Due mainly to declines in international corn and wheat prices, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) Cereal Price Index for November decreased by 3% from the previous month, according to a report released on Dec. 8. International prices of coarse grains dropped by 5.6% in November, led by a sharp fall in corn prices, while wheat prices declined by 2.4%, the FAO said. Its All-Rice Price Index remained stable month-on-month amidst contrasting price movements across different origins and…
Ukraine grain exports down sharply from last year
Ukraine’s grain exports are continuing to fall significantly behind the pace a year ago, with 13.4 million tonnes exported so far, compared to 18.3 million tonnes last year, according to data from the agriculture ministry. The exports include 5.9 million tonnes of wheat, 6.5 million tonnes of corn and 876,000 tonnes of barley. By this time last year, Ukraine had exported 6.9 million tonnes of wheat, 9.8 million tonnes of corn and 1.48 million tonnes of barley.
Russia forecasting record grain exports
With nearly 98% of its harvest collected, Russia is forecasting over 65 million tonnes of grain exports during the 2023-24 marketing season, Reuters reported, citing Russian news agency Interfax. Russian Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev said on Nov. 28 that more than 151 million tonnes of grain in bunker weight had been threshed, including almost 99 million tonnes of wheat, according to Interfax.
Brazil crop weather in 2023 is challenging years like 2015
Weather conditions in Brazil so far this spring have been poor in many areas and if a turnaround does not occur soon production may be notably off the trend as it was in 2015-16 and 2020-21. In 2015, El Niño was solely responsible for lower grain and oilseed production. This year is a bit different. World Weather, Inc. forecasters believe that El Niño has certainly had much influence on this year’s adverse weather as it did in 2015-16, but so…
China’s grain feed use on upswing
China’s grain feed and residual use in marketing year 2023-24 is projected to rise slightly to 285 million tonnes, up 2.7% from 282.3 million tonnes in 2022-23, according to a Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture. FAS Post Beijing anticipates corn production in 2023-24 to edge higher to 280 million tonnes due to a larger planted area at 40.927 million hectares (up 1.9%) and improved yields. Feed and…